Re: Elven lifespan

<<I once calculted (I forgot the exact stuff) that out of a 100 adventurers
about 50% dies before reaching level 10 (keep in mind that these are NPC's,
without a DM kind enough not to send them against ancient red dragons at
L3), 30% builds a castle and settles down at name level (after which they
generally stop acquiring much xp), 10% does various other things that keeps
them from reaching higher levels, and only some 10% keeps going. Of these
10%, several will die/settle/whatever before L20, some more before L30,
etc, so that about 1% actually reaches L36.>>

You had me confused until I realized you were talking about D&D. :)

I would put the percentages a lot lower, actually. I'd say you probably
have an 8% chance of survival to 10th level (working through the
"adventuring" method, instead of the stay-at-home-and-train one). Much of
the attrition comes at first level, which can be offset by adventuring with
higher-level characters. Still, deaths do continue even through the higher
levels, especially when running up against things like trolls and neogi,
not to mention illithids. (I hate illithids. You can't touch them with
magic, and if you try to melee all they have to do is hit you with their
tentacles--at THAC0 11--four times and *slurp*.)

Beyond tenth level, the survival rates increase. However, the XP
requirements are large enough that aging might start to kick in, preventing
everyone but wizards (and priests with access to the Time sphere) from
reaching the very highest levels. Also, as you pointed out, many characters
will eventually achieve the goals which drove them to adventuring in the
first place, and will settle down to real life. This applies doubly to old
adventurers.

So here's my own take on the math.

Working with humans:
The SJ population of a sphere is about 6 million. (Translation from CSHB.)
Humans compose about 30% of the SJ population. (My call.)
10% of all SJers are classed. (CSHB)
About 2% of all classed characters are mages. (My own decision; most are
soldiers--that is, fighters--as well as some thieves. Clerics are rare,
too. Of course, you wouldn't normally notice this, because all the
spellcasters tend to cluster in the ports.)
8% survive to 10th level.
About 60% reach each subsequent level. (Some violent deaths, but most just
get 	old or tired.)

Even with these IMHO very conservative figures, I still have 8 out of every
thousand mages reaching 18th level. While Int will weed out some, since
only .2% of the population ever become mages, you can be sure that those
.2% are among the best and the brightest--and aging modifiers will boost
even that eventually. So say 3 out of the 18 will eventually achieve 18 Int
and become archmages. Out of a population of 2 million humans, I have 12
archmages popping out every 100 years or so (we have to go by lifespan, not
generation). It kind of makes me wonder where all the old ones are hiding...

Of course, pretty much all of these figures are eyeballed. And none of them
figure for rivalry--all the deaths are pretty much assumed to be general
adventuring accidents, not specific targetting. So, are there any comments?

Hemlock